* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 69 67 65 60 54 60 57 54 52 49 46 45 43 42 41 V (KT) LAND 70 70 69 67 65 60 54 60 57 54 52 49 46 45 43 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 64 60 58 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 11 16 14 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 1 3 4 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 135 165 209 201 213 212 217 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.7 20.9 14.5 15.9 14.3 11.3 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 107 88 75 78 76 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 96 82 73 76 74 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.4 -55.9 -55.9 -55.7 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 53 56 57 53 58 60 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 40 39 39 36 38 47 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 71 81 123 147 172 289 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 66 61 92 131 73 -19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 -2 -1 8 -21 -29 -34 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 741 688 613 467 568 1297 972 618 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.6 39.9 41.2 43.0 44.8 48.9 53.3 58.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.4 56.8 54.3 50.3 46.3 35.3 24.7 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 23 29 34 39 41 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 12 CX,CY: 7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 802 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -16. -22. -27. -32. -34. -38. -40. -43. -44. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -24. -25. -27. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 38.6 59.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 69 67 65 60 54 60 57 54 52 49 46 45 43 42 41 18HR AGO 70 69 68 66 64 59 53 59 56 53 51 48 45 44 42 41 40 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 62 57 51 57 54 51 49 46 43 42 40 39 38 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 53 47 53 50 47 45 42 39 38 36 35 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT