* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 69 68 68 64 58 53 58 57 55 54 51 47 44 42 41 V (KT) LAND 70 68 69 68 68 64 58 53 58 57 55 54 51 47 44 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 66 64 57 53 55 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 22 18 11 9 13 19 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 3 3 2 2 6 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 166 143 154 191 171 223 237 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.3 25.9 23.5 24.7 14.4 16.6 11.9 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 115 98 108 75 80 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 97 99 88 97 73 77 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.6 -56.1 -54.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.0 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 49 53 55 55 60 62 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 42 44 43 43 40 36 36 43 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 67 97 96 72 138 147 215 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 83 101 99 78 85 93 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 2 -5 0 1 -15 22 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 885 818 758 730 671 406 944 1249 656 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.0 36.8 37.6 38.9 40.1 43.5 47.5 52.1 55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.0 61.5 61.0 58.9 56.8 50.6 40.2 28.6 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 15 21 25 35 43 38 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -18. -24. -28. -31. -33. -36. -39. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -8. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -2. -2. -6. -12. -17. -12. -13. -14. -16. -19. -23. -26. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 36.0 62.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 3( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 69 68 68 64 58 53 58 57 55 54 51 47 44 42 41 18HR AGO 70 69 70 69 69 65 59 54 59 58 56 55 52 48 45 43 42 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 65 61 55 50 55 54 52 51 48 44 41 39 38 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 56 50 45 50 49 47 46 43 39 36 34 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT