* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 74 75 73 70 62 56 58 55 53 50 48 47 45 44 41 V (KT) LAND 75 74 74 75 73 70 62 56 58 55 53 50 48 47 45 44 41 V (KT) LGEM 75 75 75 75 72 64 55 56 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 24 22 17 8 10 16 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 3 5 0 4 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 178 163 145 148 210 206 234 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 26.2 26.3 25.5 23.4 21.4 14.6 12.9 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 115 117 112 98 91 77 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 96 99 97 88 85 75 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -55.2 -55.9 -56.2 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 47 52 54 58 57 67 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 43 45 45 43 38 36 40 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 91 84 92 92 88 158 176 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 100 85 106 94 65 119 78 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 5 0 -1 15 5 -30 -2 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1013 926 839 768 709 522 605 1436 783 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.7 36.5 37.8 39.0 42.0 45.9 50.6 54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.6 61.7 61.8 60.5 59.1 53.8 45.3 33.3 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 12 16 21 31 41 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -14. -21. -27. -32. -35. -38. -41. -44. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -6. -9. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -13. -19. -17. -20. -22. -25. -27. -28. -30. -31. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 34.9 61.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 457.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 4( 13) 4( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 74 75 73 70 62 56 58 55 53 50 48 47 45 44 41 18HR AGO 75 74 74 75 73 70 62 56 58 55 53 50 48 47 45 44 41 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 70 67 59 53 55 52 50 47 45 44 42 41 38 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 60 52 46 48 45 43 40 38 37 35 34 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT