* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 76 75 75 73 73 64 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 V (KT) LAND 75 75 76 75 75 73 73 64 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 75 75 76 76 76 71 63 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 18 25 22 14 11 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 2 4 2 4 0 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 184 168 179 173 144 220 193 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.5 26.3 26.4 23.3 21.6 13.6 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 109 117 118 97 92 75 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 94 93 98 100 87 85 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -55.1 -55.6 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 51 49 53 59 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 40 42 42 43 44 44 38 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 102 106 89 79 88 88 171 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 62 70 86 84 100 58 115 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 7 3 0 16 6 -28 -84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1234 1135 1034 932 832 716 500 560 1214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.8 34.7 35.7 36.7 38.9 42.2 46.3 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.6 61.6 61.6 61.5 61.4 59.2 53.8 45.7 36.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 20 31 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -19. -25. -30. -32. -35. -38. -41. -42. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. -2. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -0. -0. -2. -2. -11. -21. -23. -25. -27. -29. -31. -33. -35. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 32.8 61.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 448.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 5( 14) 4( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 75 76 75 75 73 73 64 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 18HR AGO 75 74 75 74 74 72 72 63 53 51 49 47 45 43 41 39 37 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 70 68 68 59 49 47 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 63 63 54 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT