* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/23/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 74 75 76 76 74 70 61 59 57 56 53 51 48 46 44 V (KT) LAND 75 74 74 75 76 76 74 70 61 59 57 56 53 51 48 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 75 74 74 75 76 73 66 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 17 23 17 6 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 3 5 3 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 207 179 172 176 150 171 192 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 26.3 25.4 24.6 13.7 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 110 109 117 110 107 75 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 93 94 93 99 95 97 73 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -55.2 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.4 1.0 1.6 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 52 50 51 56 60 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 39 42 44 45 43 41 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 100 99 99 78 79 71 138 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 38 48 74 83 100 70 105 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 8 4 7 3 5 0 -11 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1294 1219 1135 1028 922 765 652 389 940 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 33.0 33.8 34.8 35.8 37.8 40.4 44.2 48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.5 61.5 61.4 61.5 61.5 60.4 56.6 49.6 40.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 15 26 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -24. -28. -31. -34. -36. -39. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -14. -16. -18. -19. -22. -24. -27. -29. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 32.2 61.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 462.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 5( 14) 5( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 74 75 76 76 74 70 61 59 57 56 53 51 48 46 44 18HR AGO 75 74 74 75 76 76 74 70 61 59 57 56 53 51 48 46 44 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 73 73 71 67 58 56 54 53 50 48 45 43 41 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 66 64 60 51 49 47 46 43 41 38 36 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT