* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 78 78 78 78 77 75 66 62 67 65 63 61 59 56 54 V (KT) LAND 80 78 78 78 78 78 77 75 66 62 67 65 63 61 59 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 76 77 77 77 73 66 57 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 15 17 21 11 9 19 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 2 2 5 0 7 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 201 199 187 174 172 133 220 202 222 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 26.4 24.7 20.3 15.1 14.9 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 109 109 109 118 106 86 77 77 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 93 93 93 92 99 94 81 74 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.8 -55.2 -54.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.2 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 52 52 50 49 55 54 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 38 39 41 43 44 42 38 37 43 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 130 114 100 100 99 85 95 104 166 207 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 29 26 55 86 72 104 61 104 110 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 6 4 9 1 16 8 -16 66 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1370 1302 1234 1144 1053 880 772 579 541 1242 897 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.2 32.8 33.7 34.5 36.2 38.3 41.5 45.1 49.9 55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.3 61.5 61.6 61.6 61.7 61.5 59.4 54.2 46.5 36.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 10 19 30 38 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -20. -28. -34. -39. -42. -45. -48. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. -1. -3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -14. -18. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -24. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.5 61.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 493.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 6( 18) 6( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 78 78 78 78 77 75 66 62 67 65 63 61 59 56 54 18HR AGO 80 79 79 79 79 79 78 76 67 63 68 66 64 62 60 57 55 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 76 76 75 73 64 60 65 63 61 59 57 54 52 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 70 69 67 58 54 59 57 55 53 51 48 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT