* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 74 74 74 77 78 77 73 67 60 69 55 51 46 42 40 V (KT) LAND 80 76 74 74 74 77 78 77 73 67 60 69 55 51 46 42 40 V (KT) LGEM 80 74 72 72 73 75 76 70 62 57 61 60 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 15 13 22 20 7 14 23 41 40 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -2 3 0 2 4 9 21 12 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 237 197 198 189 176 158 198 183 208 215 152 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.9 26.1 24.1 15.1 16.8 11.4 11.4 9.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 111 109 109 113 116 103 76 80 73 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 95 94 93 93 95 100 93 73 77 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -55.3 -55.2 -52.2 -48.6 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.4 0.8 -0.4 3.7 4.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 49 49 50 50 48 51 52 54 54 51 58 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 36 38 38 41 44 43 41 39 37 50 44 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 149 125 116 100 93 87 82 89 158 186 325 418 387 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 18 28 22 47 94 83 75 86 112 111 56 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 3 4 4 0 26 -6 9 -4 66 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1429 1384 1308 1234 1163 957 797 692 427 827 1433 974 991 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.3 31.9 32.7 33.4 35.3 37.2 39.6 43.1 47.3 52.1 57.1 62.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.2 61.5 61.8 61.8 61.9 62.1 61.0 57.5 51.2 41.8 31.3 24.4 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 14 24 34 41 36 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -20. -27. -33. -38. -43. -47. -50. -52. -53. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -0. 1. 2. -1. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 6. 4. 0. -3. 14. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. -2. -3. -7. -13. -20. -11. -25. -29. -34. -38. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.6 61.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 533.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 5( 16) 6( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 76 74 74 74 77 78 77 73 67 60 69 55 51 46 42 40 18HR AGO 80 79 77 77 77 80 81 80 76 70 63 72 58 54 49 45 43 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 76 79 80 79 75 69 62 71 57 53 48 44 42 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 73 74 73 69 63 56 65 51 47 42 38 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT