* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 88 86 85 87 85 84 80 68 61 60 54 50 47 45 43 V (KT) LAND 95 91 88 86 85 87 85 84 80 68 61 60 54 50 47 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 95 91 88 86 85 84 82 77 68 57 56 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 11 13 13 16 19 11 12 28 38 58 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 0 3 1 4 3 7 14 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 306 281 239 206 200 180 169 160 201 206 215 172 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.5 26.5 24.7 20.5 16.1 15.5 11.2 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 110 111 110 111 109 119 105 87 78 77 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 95 94 94 93 100 93 81 75 75 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.6 -55.2 -53.3 -49.5 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 1.3 3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 51 52 50 53 52 49 52 49 43 46 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 35 36 37 42 43 45 43 38 37 41 42 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 158 144 122 111 95 93 78 101 100 143 300 439 401 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 12 15 38 25 93 88 101 55 83 114 86 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 5 3 4 8 9 2 21 4 32 -93 -140 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1435 1440 1366 1295 1224 1050 863 744 626 532 1163 1189 859 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.0 31.6 32.3 32.9 34.5 36.4 38.5 41.1 44.8 49.3 54.1 58.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.5 60.8 61.2 61.4 61.6 61.8 61.4 59.6 54.6 46.8 37.1 28.2 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 9 11 18 29 37 38 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -8. -11. -16. -22. -30. -39. -48. -54. -60. -65. -69. -70. -71. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -3. -0. 0. -1. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 7. 9. 7. -1. -3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -8. -10. -11. -15. -27. -34. -35. -41. -45. -48. -50. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 30.4 60.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 602.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 11( 26) 10( 34) 10( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 91 88 86 85 87 85 84 80 68 61 60 54 50 47 45 43 18HR AGO 95 94 91 89 88 90 88 87 83 71 64 63 57 53 50 48 46 12HR AGO 95 92 91 89 88 90 88 87 83 71 64 63 57 53 50 48 46 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 84 86 84 83 79 67 60 59 53 49 46 44 42 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 78 76 75 71 59 52 51 45 41 38 36 34 IN 6HR 95 91 82 76 73 73 71 70 66 54 47 46 40 36 33 31 29 IN 12HR 95 91 88 79 73 69 67 66 62 50 43 42 36 32 29 27 25