* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 98 95 93 91 90 90 86 79 66 56 57 56 47 42 37 V (KT) LAND 100 100 98 95 93 91 90 90 86 79 66 56 57 56 47 42 37 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 96 92 90 86 84 83 76 66 59 56 57 54 50 52 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 8 10 14 13 19 20 7 20 35 41 40 19 10 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 0 0 -2 3 0 6 3 10 24 15 -1 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 328 314 294 234 216 182 174 157 155 183 213 218 186 135 170 143 151 SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.0 25.7 25.5 26.4 23.8 21.7 16.8 12.4 11.7 10.9 10.4 10.4 7.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 110 111 112 110 109 119 101 93 80 74 71 66 65 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 94 95 95 93 93 102 90 87 77 72 69 64 63 66 67 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.3 -55.5 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -51.3 -48.2 -46.6 -46.3 -48.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.9 -0.1 1.1 3.5 2.4 1.7 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 45 49 49 48 51 50 52 48 48 44 39 50 68 80 81 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 35 36 36 39 42 45 45 43 39 38 44 47 41 37 34 850 MB ENV VOR 175 166 160 129 117 96 85 86 104 134 155 362 440 457 423 323 220 200 MB DIV -11 6 16 23 23 43 99 90 86 66 97 94 63 65 48 -11 -93 700-850 TADV -1 0 6 1 3 4 6 -4 34 19 39 -114 -57 10 -5 -37 -51 LAND (KM) 1348 1399 1447 1370 1293 1172 1002 831 733 511 789 1445 936 807 757 607 540 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.0 33.3 34.9 36.9 39.1 42.2 46.3 51.0 56.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 60.8 61.1 61.5 61.9 61.9 62.0 60.9 57.8 51.8 42.6 33.2 24.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 14 22 33 39 38 28 13 11 20 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -25. -34. -43. -52. -59. -65. -70. -76. -79. -81. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 2. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 7. 4. -1. -4. 3. 6. -1. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -14. -21. -34. -44. -43. -44. -53. -58. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 29.5 60.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 671.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 4.1% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 14( 47) 12( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 98 95 93 91 90 90 86 79 66 56 57 56 47 42 37 18HR AGO 100 99 97 94 92 90 89 89 85 78 65 55 56 55 46 41 36 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 91 89 88 88 84 77 64 54 55 54 45 40 35 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 86 85 85 81 74 61 51 52 51 42 37 32 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 78 78 74 67 54 44 45 44 35 30 25 IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 81 80 80 76 69 56 46 47 46 37 32 27 IN 12HR 100 100 98 89 83 79 78 78 74 67 54 44 45 44 35 30 25