* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 102 99 96 92 91 90 87 82 73 63 54 59 56 50 44 V (KT) LAND 100 104 102 99 96 92 91 90 87 82 73 63 54 59 56 50 44 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 97 93 90 87 83 81 78 71 61 57 55 57 55 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 9 9 11 17 18 18 15 9 21 35 39 27 6 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -1 0 -2 1 0 7 1 8 11 24 7 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 36 340 309 283 236 204 162 166 151 173 193 216 222 176 96 188 191 SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.5 26.4 25.1 22.4 16.3 16.7 12.2 11.9 10.3 9.7 6.2 POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 109 111 111 111 108 118 108 94 78 79 73 70 68 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 94 93 95 94 94 90 99 95 87 75 76 71 68 66 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.7 -55.1 -54.6 -50.9 -46.9 -46.2 -47.3 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 -0.1 2.2 3.1 2.1 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 43 46 48 49 51 50 50 48 49 46 44 40 54 75 82 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 34 34 35 37 39 41 44 44 42 39 37 44 44 39 35 850 MB ENV VOR 175 174 163 152 125 93 85 69 92 96 140 172 358 443 422 402 275 200 MB DIV 31 2 8 19 28 23 89 76 78 68 86 103 85 65 60 -25 -68 700-850 TADV 5 -1 -1 6 3 5 1 1 4 -6 21 6 -105 -11 49 -22 -61 LAND (KM) 1370 1404 1441 1419 1338 1196 1026 918 782 677 530 1084 1232 797 784 733 705 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.0 30.5 31.2 31.9 33.2 34.7 35.9 38.0 40.7 44.0 47.7 51.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.2 60.6 60.9 61.2 61.5 61.9 61.3 59.7 55.2 47.5 38.3 28.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 10 17 27 35 38 33 25 20 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -25. -35. -43. -51. -58. -64. -70. -75. -78. -80. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 4. 5. 3. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 5. -0. -4. 5. 3. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -9. -10. -13. -18. -27. -37. -46. -41. -44. -50. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 29.4 59.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 649.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 5.9% 3.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 2.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 24( 41) 19( 52) 13( 58) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 104 102 99 96 92 91 90 87 82 73 63 54 59 56 50 44 18HR AGO 100 99 97 94 91 87 86 85 82 77 68 58 49 54 51 45 39 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 90 86 85 84 81 76 67 57 48 53 50 44 38 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 83 82 81 78 73 64 54 45 50 47 41 35 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 77 76 75 72 67 58 48 39 44 41 35 29 IN 6HR 100 104 95 89 86 83 82 81 78 73 64 54 45 50 47 41 35 IN 12HR 100 104 102 93 87 83 82 81 78 73 64 54 45 50 47 41 35