* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 84 84 85 87 88 88 87 83 77 68 53 51 50 47 V (KT) LAND 75 80 82 84 84 85 87 88 88 87 83 77 68 53 51 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 83 83 82 81 81 80 77 76 71 62 54 50 49 49 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 5 5 10 9 11 19 19 19 15 30 35 60 16 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -4 0 0 0 4 3 4 0 5 6 19 5 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 168 144 86 320 284 232 212 182 167 150 195 179 207 197 115 344 290 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.5 25.9 25.9 24.9 15.5 19.2 15.0 12.7 11.9 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 114 112 112 112 111 107 112 115 109 76 85 76 72 67 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 101 98 96 96 95 94 90 94 99 97 74 81 74 69 65 62 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -51.9 -47.8 -46.2 -47.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 43 41 45 48 49 46 45 43 41 47 44 40 34 54 76 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 32 34 34 34 35 37 41 43 42 42 39 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 167 173 173 177 172 136 96 97 85 86 77 98 119 341 464 405 376 200 MB DIV 56 67 36 11 17 25 38 72 52 85 61 55 69 43 52 55 41 700-850 TADV 19 8 2 0 3 4 2 3 0 4 -18 -8 -119 -442 119 145 69 LAND (KM) 1431 1405 1384 1415 1449 1371 1229 1085 970 823 706 507 956 1483 789 492 457 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.2 29.4 30.0 30.5 31.6 32.9 34.1 35.2 37.2 39.7 42.6 45.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.7 58.6 59.4 59.9 60.4 61.1 61.5 62.1 62.0 60.4 56.9 50.3 40.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 8 15 23 33 38 37 28 15 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. -30. -33. -37. -40. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -0. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 8. 6. 5. 0. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 11. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 8. 2. -7. -22. -24. -25. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 28.9 57.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 466.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.4% 24.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 13.4% 10.1% 1.8% 0.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 10.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.2% 13.0% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 9( 20) 10( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 82 84 84 85 87 88 88 87 83 77 68 53 51 50 47 18HR AGO 75 74 76 78 78 79 81 82 82 81 77 71 62 47 45 44 41 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 73 74 76 77 77 76 72 66 57 42 40 39 36 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 66 68 69 69 68 64 58 49 34 32 31 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT