* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 75 78 81 83 85 87 87 89 86 83 74 60 35 59 46 V (KT) LAND 65 71 75 78 81 83 85 87 87 89 86 83 74 60 35 59 39 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 77 79 79 79 79 79 77 76 74 68 58 49 45 51 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 11 2 8 9 15 17 17 20 19 13 26 50 60 61 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 0 3 -3 7 5 1 4 0 18 10 17 21 SHEAR DIR 170 166 141 48 321 277 217 193 190 167 170 170 191 212 211 225 221 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.6 26.1 24.9 22.6 19.5 17.9 14.3 13.4 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 118 115 113 113 112 111 108 115 107 95 85 81 75 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 110 102 99 97 97 95 93 90 97 94 88 80 77 73 71 70 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.5 -55.9 -54.8 -51.1 -50.1 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 3.4 1.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 43 44 43 44 50 49 48 47 48 44 49 47 36 30 41 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 33 33 34 33 34 36 38 42 42 42 38 33 20 48 45 850 MB ENV VOR 166 166 175 175 170 154 110 90 84 91 83 97 98 141 189 41 -70 200 MB DIV 71 76 70 41 11 23 26 51 69 92 99 68 57 27 -17 9 38 700-850 TADV 22 23 8 2 0 10 2 1 4 -2 8 -28 -23 -132 -241 -31 -37 LAND (KM) 1468 1423 1385 1387 1394 1468 1310 1159 1077 959 827 702 634 1188 1216 470 -75 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.7 30.9 32.2 33.6 34.3 35.6 37.8 40.4 43.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.3 57.4 58.5 59.1 59.8 60.5 61.2 61.3 61.6 61.0 59.2 54.4 46.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 10 18 28 35 36 35 32 31 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -20. -24. -26. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -5. -13. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 9. 8. 2. -6. -21. 11. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 22. 24. 21. 18. 9. -5. -30. -6. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.3 56.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 11.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 404.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.1% 33.8% 26.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 23.2% 20.2% 4.3% 0.8% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 9.0% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.6% 19.0% 15.9% 6.3% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 15.0% 13.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 8( 14) 9( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 71 75 78 81 83 85 87 87 89 86 83 74 60 35 59 39 18HR AGO 65 64 68 71 74 76 78 80 80 82 79 76 67 53 28 52 32 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 69 71 73 73 75 72 69 60 46 21 45 25 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 60 62 64 64 66 63 60 51 37 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT