* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 74 78 82 85 88 86 88 86 82 74 62 31 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 74 78 82 85 88 86 88 86 82 74 62 31 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 70 72 74 76 79 78 77 77 73 67 58 47 35 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 17 10 5 13 6 13 16 18 20 9 24 31 50 68 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 -1 0 1 2 -1 5 3 12 10 17 SHEAR DIR 193 176 171 131 61 311 225 199 169 182 143 209 186 202 210 213 222 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.6 26.3 24.3 23.8 19.2 16.0 15.7 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 125 119 115 112 113 112 110 109 118 104 103 84 78 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 114 109 104 99 96 96 94 91 92 100 93 94 79 75 75 73 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -54.7 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -55.6 -55.7 -56.3 -55.7 -53.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 42 44 46 42 48 52 49 50 50 44 48 49 47 36 32 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 32 33 33 32 33 34 37 38 42 42 41 39 34 13 3 850 MB ENV VOR 165 168 168 174 178 165 130 106 99 89 105 68 97 92 96 126 44 200 MB DIV 77 74 76 66 37 31 25 40 75 54 93 66 71 80 25 -5 13 700-850 TADV 34 26 26 7 1 7 6 2 0 2 -3 1 -40 -70 -113 -301 -181 LAND (KM) 1454 1433 1421 1395 1375 1419 1423 1260 1183 1077 915 786 562 762 1431 1042 212 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.2 30.0 31.3 32.7 33.4 34.4 36.1 38.6 41.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.4 57.3 58.2 59.2 59.9 60.6 61.1 61.2 61.2 60.8 57.8 52.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 7 6 7 6 4 7 13 22 29 34 37 38 37 HEAT CONTENT 20 14 14 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -8. -16. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 9. 8. 4. -3. -27. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 31. 33. 31. 27. 19. 7. -24. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.4 55.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 36.1% 24.9% 0.0% 0.0% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 18.1% 14.4% 3.7% 0.7% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 4.9% 0.1% 2.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 18.1% 13.8% 1.6% 0.2% 8.8% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 11.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 6( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 66 71 74 78 82 85 88 86 88 86 82 74 62 31 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 59 64 67 71 75 78 81 79 81 79 75 67 55 24 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 59 63 67 70 73 71 73 71 67 59 47 16 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 52 56 59 62 60 62 60 56 48 36 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT