* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 61 67 72 75 80 81 81 84 84 78 70 52 32 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 61 67 72 75 80 81 81 84 84 78 70 52 32 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 55 58 63 67 71 73 74 75 75 71 64 56 47 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 13 14 8 9 11 12 12 19 19 8 9 19 20 46 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -1 0 -2 -5 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 -1 4 9 2 20 SHEAR DIR 212 206 186 190 163 333 303 232 197 205 152 167 203 210 201 193 217 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.4 24.6 16.6 19.9 16.7 13.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 131 128 122 115 112 113 111 111 110 111 107 77 87 80 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 116 115 113 106 99 96 95 93 93 94 98 96 73 82 77 74 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -55.7 -55.5 -55.3 -55.0 -54.9 -55.7 -56.6 -56.3 -56.8 -56.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 46 46 46 44 48 49 45 46 47 49 55 62 50 39 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 31 31 31 31 31 33 34 35 38 38 37 34 22 12 850 MB ENV VOR 164 163 165 168 175 167 161 123 113 113 106 70 75 96 124 77 94 200 MB DIV 70 81 73 73 59 5 26 39 71 52 38 64 89 68 83 25 15 700-850 TADV 16 29 22 26 12 0 11 7 2 4 1 -3 14 -37 -55 -295 -364 LAND (KM) 1413 1411 1417 1380 1352 1352 1411 1429 1329 1229 1085 940 794 603 980 1522 419 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.6 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.9 30.0 31.2 32.0 32.9 34.3 36.5 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.3 55.9 57.0 58.0 59.1 60.1 60.7 61.2 61.5 61.3 59.3 55.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 10 10 8 6 6 5 5 6 10 18 24 28 37 46 49 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 16 12 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. -0. -14. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 27. 30. 35. 36. 36. 39. 39. 33. 25. 7. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.9 54.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 20.4% 14.7% 10.6% 0.0% 12.8% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 14.4% 11.8% 2.5% 0.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 11.7% 8.9% 4.4% 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 57 61 67 72 75 80 81 81 84 84 78 70 52 32 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 56 62 67 70 75 76 76 79 79 73 65 47 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 49 55 60 63 68 69 69 72 72 66 58 40 20 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 45 50 53 58 59 59 62 62 56 48 30 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT