* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 46 50 55 61 68 73 78 82 85 85 87 85 77 64 50 V (KT) LAND 40 42 46 50 55 61 68 73 78 82 85 85 87 85 77 64 50 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 46 49 56 62 67 72 75 76 75 73 70 59 50 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 14 16 4 15 8 12 14 10 14 8 29 31 39 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 1 2 3 1 1 6 5 10 9 SHEAR DIR 220 237 201 196 207 86 316 270 245 205 180 157 199 184 195 208 238 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.4 27.7 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 25.9 25.7 24.9 23.8 20.3 18.8 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 132 129 132 121 117 116 114 115 112 112 107 101 86 83 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 113 115 114 115 104 100 97 95 96 94 97 95 92 80 78 74 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.5 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.4 -55.3 -54.9 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 -56.0 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 45 47 44 45 44 46 48 48 44 42 41 45 47 47 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 30 32 30 31 32 33 34 37 38 40 42 41 35 29 850 MB ENV VOR 156 164 165 168 173 177 170 142 123 131 118 120 80 58 85 89 44 200 MB DIV 26 62 74 57 58 47 23 31 52 64 33 42 53 68 129 19 -4 700-850 TADV 11 23 25 24 29 0 5 6 2 3 0 0 10 -12 -15 -34 -157 LAND (KM) 1350 1371 1396 1373 1361 1317 1376 1450 1375 1274 1156 1007 900 745 646 1074 1503 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.0 26.6 27.2 27.8 28.4 29.6 30.7 31.4 32.2 33.3 35.1 37.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 55.3 55.5 56.4 57.3 58.9 60.0 60.9 61.4 61.9 62.2 61.1 58.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 8 10 9 8 7 5 4 5 7 13 19 25 30 33 34 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 20 12 15 5 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -4. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 9. 10. 12. 10. 2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 33. 38. 42. 45. 45. 47. 45. 37. 24. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.3 55.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.41 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.7% 12.2% 9.1% 8.4% 11.3% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 8.4% 6.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.4% 6.3% 3.6% 2.9% 4.2% 4.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 46 50 55 61 68 73 78 82 85 85 87 85 77 64 50 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 52 58 65 70 75 79 82 82 84 82 74 61 47 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 45 51 58 63 68 72 75 75 77 75 67 54 40 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 41 48 53 58 62 65 65 67 65 57 44 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT