* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 55 60 70 78 82 86 90 92 94 94 91 80 62 37 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 55 60 70 78 82 86 90 92 94 94 91 80 62 37 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 55 64 70 73 76 79 80 78 77 72 61 45 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 12 9 12 6 6 15 10 8 14 16 9 31 45 56 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 0 -1 -4 -2 1 0 6 0 0 2 7 10 12 SHEAR DIR 220 225 236 203 195 243 14 316 219 186 178 140 227 192 208 234 245 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.7 26.6 24.4 21.5 19.1 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 130 128 128 126 120 116 115 114 112 111 122 105 90 82 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 109 112 112 112 109 103 99 97 95 93 95 106 94 83 77 75 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -54.7 -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 45 44 43 45 43 48 47 45 45 42 39 47 45 27 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 29 30 31 34 33 33 33 35 37 40 41 43 41 32 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 157 149 161 156 163 177 174 163 132 117 127 126 104 102 110 116 -65 200 MB DIV 17 39 66 72 59 75 -3 18 26 83 79 59 43 73 73 -1 -38 700-850 TADV 1 10 15 20 23 14 -1 5 2 4 1 -1 6 -15 -24 -133 -249 LAND (KM) 1319 1337 1356 1354 1359 1304 1307 1378 1384 1269 1183 1071 880 754 536 714 1229 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.6 27.2 28.0 28.8 30.0 31.2 32.1 32.7 34.0 36.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 55.3 55.4 56.0 56.6 58.5 59.8 60.9 61.6 62.2 62.8 62.6 61.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 6 8 9 8 7 7 6 4 5 10 16 23 28 28 28 HEAT CONTENT 30 24 22 14 11 9 4 1 3 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. -5. -12. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 12. 15. 15. 16. 12. 1. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 30. 38. 42. 46. 50. 52. 54. 54. 51. 40. 22. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.2 55.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.2% 11.3% 8.6% 7.4% 10.4% 12.3% 15.7% Logistic: 1.4% 6.0% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.1% 5.2% 3.1% 2.5% 3.7% 4.3% 5.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 55 60 70 78 82 86 90 92 94 94 91 80 62 37 18HR AGO 40 39 44 50 55 65 73 77 81 85 87 89 89 86 75 57 32 12HR AGO 40 37 36 42 47 57 65 69 73 77 79 81 81 78 67 49 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 45 53 57 61 65 67 69 69 66 55 37 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT