* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 55 61 70 79 84 88 90 94 97 94 95 94 81 59 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 55 61 70 79 84 88 90 94 97 94 95 94 81 59 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 49 54 58 67 72 74 77 80 82 80 75 77 71 56 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 17 14 13 13 5 13 4 12 13 14 7 22 28 40 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 0 2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 2 -4 -1 3 11 8 5 SHEAR DIR 243 227 237 240 217 186 65 308 245 217 179 152 195 210 187 231 243 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.5 21.8 15.1 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 127 129 128 130 121 116 116 115 113 112 113 113 91 74 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 108 111 111 113 104 100 99 97 95 94 97 101 83 71 76 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -55.5 -55.2 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.4 2.2 0.9 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 45 44 43 42 47 48 46 48 47 46 49 52 44 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 27 29 32 34 33 33 34 37 41 40 42 47 42 30 850 MB ENV VOR 139 149 145 154 148 157 163 159 145 120 124 107 129 98 119 138 22 200 MB DIV 13 17 40 50 48 41 47 7 33 37 81 61 30 58 119 55 3 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 7 17 12 4 3 1 2 3 -4 -1 10 -4 24 -68 LAND (KM) 1336 1339 1342 1352 1365 1323 1284 1334 1409 1303 1179 1049 954 794 652 518 916 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.7 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.8 28.4 29.4 30.5 31.6 32.5 33.7 35.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.8 56.1 57.9 59.5 60.5 61.5 62.5 63.3 63.6 63.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 3 6 7 9 7 7 7 6 6 7 12 22 26 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 16 13 13 5 1 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 11. 11. 15. 20. 17. 18. 22. 15. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 30. 39. 44. 48. 50. 54. 57. 54. 55. 54. 41. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.6 55.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.82 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 19.1% 13.9% 10.3% 8.9% 11.2% 13.8% 18.5% Logistic: 2.7% 8.0% 5.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 9.0% 6.6% 3.5% 3.0% 3.9% 4.7% 6.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 50 55 61 70 79 84 88 90 94 97 94 95 94 81 59 18HR AGO 40 39 44 49 55 64 73 78 82 84 88 91 88 89 88 75 53 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 47 56 65 70 74 76 80 83 80 81 80 67 45 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 45 54 59 63 65 69 72 69 70 69 56 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT