* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 52 61 72 78 82 85 92 93 94 92 91 83 67 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 52 61 72 78 82 85 92 93 94 92 91 83 67 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 44 47 55 62 67 71 75 80 80 77 76 73 63 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 19 19 13 16 3 2 11 11 9 20 9 16 20 28 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 1 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 0 5 9 8 SHEAR DIR 262 242 235 248 253 198 196 271 284 216 200 165 116 207 192 220 238 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.9 26.7 24.4 24.1 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 127 127 130 130 123 119 116 115 115 112 112 123 105 103 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 106 107 112 114 106 102 99 97 97 93 95 108 94 92 76 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.1 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -55.5 -55.5 -55.0 -55.4 -55.3 -55.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 45 45 47 48 47 46 54 58 59 56 58 54 49 53 45 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 25 26 28 32 34 33 33 34 38 41 42 43 45 43 34 850 MB ENV VOR 132 138 149 144 144 152 158 152 134 116 106 121 117 122 88 128 80 200 MB DIV -6 5 17 27 30 50 49 17 28 46 83 102 59 47 116 64 20 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 1 7 17 11 2 2 5 10 5 3 8 7 32 -19 LAND (KM) 1351 1354 1357 1374 1392 1368 1325 1317 1392 1379 1260 1136 1006 881 771 592 628 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.2 27.4 28.3 28.8 30.1 31.2 32.0 32.9 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 55.3 55.3 55.2 55.2 56.7 58.6 59.6 60.8 61.7 62.6 63.4 63.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 1 2 5 9 7 7 7 6 6 5 9 17 22 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 23 23 11 8 4 1 3 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 11. 11. 12. 17. 20. 21. 19. 21. 16. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 26. 37. 43. 47. 50. 57. 58. 59. 57. 56. 48. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.7 55.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.92 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.8% 11.6% 8.1% 6.9% 9.6% 12.4% 19.0% Logistic: 2.9% 9.1% 5.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.3% 5.8% 2.8% 2.3% 3.4% 4.3% 6.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 43 47 52 61 72 78 82 85 92 93 94 92 91 83 67 18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 48 57 68 74 78 81 88 89 90 88 87 79 63 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 40 49 60 66 70 73 80 81 82 80 79 71 55 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 39 50 56 60 63 70 71 72 70 69 61 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT