* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYSEV AL272020 10/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 45 54 67 77 83 86 91 98 97 97 97 90 77 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 45 54 67 77 83 86 91 98 97 97 97 90 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 53 61 66 71 78 82 80 78 78 71 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 14 15 15 8 9 4 11 6 10 14 12 10 21 32 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -1 -1 3 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 2 7 5 SHEAR DIR 279 265 248 240 260 205 211 187 277 259 226 182 158 215 217 208 233 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.1 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 127 127 130 132 132 124 118 119 119 117 116 116 116 111 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 106 106 111 114 114 107 101 101 100 97 95 100 103 100 72 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.5 -56.1 -55.8 -55.8 -55.5 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -55.2 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 5 1 0 700-500 MB RH 47 46 46 46 47 51 51 54 59 60 58 59 56 51 49 49 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 25 26 29 33 34 34 34 36 40 41 42 46 45 39 850 MB ENV VOR 124 131 138 150 143 138 147 149 133 117 109 117 104 129 99 101 100 200 MB DIV 4 -6 5 17 28 51 41 55 15 49 51 126 63 20 52 68 19 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 4 16 13 5 5 8 8 10 0 4 14 -8 4 LAND (KM) 1326 1307 1288 1299 1311 1396 1402 1378 1399 1451 1341 1240 1189 1113 967 821 514 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 1 4 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 11 19 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 29 28 29 22 17 10 2 3 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 14. 14. 13. 16. 21. 21. 21. 23. 20. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 24. 37. 47. 53. 56. 61. 68. 67. 67. 67. 60. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.7 55.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 TWENTYSEV 10/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.83 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.0% 9.7% 6.5% 5.6% 8.6% 10.9% 19.7% Logistic: 1.5% 5.4% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.2% 4.1% 2.2% 1.9% 3.0% 3.8% 6.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 TWENTYSEV 10/19/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 TWENTYSEV 10/19/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 41 45 54 67 77 83 86 91 98 97 97 97 90 77 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 41 50 63 73 79 82 87 94 93 93 93 86 73 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 44 57 67 73 76 81 88 87 87 87 80 67 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 46 56 62 65 70 77 76 76 76 69 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT