* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 38 40 42 44 47 49 51 53 55 56 57 58 62 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 37 38 40 36 30 32 34 36 39 41 42 43 44 47 V (KT) LGEM 40 36 34 32 31 31 28 27 30 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 22 19 14 12 22 22 20 13 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 -2 1 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 166 163 155 155 149 150 142 125 73 78 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.4 30.5 30.8 30.2 29.8 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 163 164 166 169 167 168 169 163 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 142 143 145 147 156 155 162 153 143 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 3 6 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 51 54 60 66 70 72 66 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 17 16 14 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 55 59 59 68 77 74 92 94 99 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 34 31 44 42 72 43 37 23 47 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 9 12 7 10 5 -4 -3 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 116 100 94 74 55 2 1 -26 15 111 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.1 21.8 21.1 20.6 20.3 21.3 22.2 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.9 88.3 88.7 89.2 90.0 90.4 90.2 89.7 89.7 90.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 4 5 5 4 2 2 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 42 43 45 51 55 55 47 55 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.6 87.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 18.4% 12.9% 10.2% 9.5% 11.3% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.5% 5.2% 3.6% 3.2% 3.9% 3.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 37 37 38 40 36 30 32 34 36 39 41 42 43 44 47 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 39 41 37 31 33 35 37 40 42 43 44 45 48 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 39 35 29 31 33 35 38 40 41 42 43 46 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 29 23 25 27 29 32 34 35 36 37 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT