* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 43 45 44 45 48 50 52 54 57 59 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 43 45 44 38 32 35 37 39 42 44 45 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 39 38 37 37 32 29 32 33 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 29 21 18 15 18 24 21 15 12 12 13 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -8 -7 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 0 1 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 173 167 162 151 152 149 150 130 101 88 124 115 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.7 30.6 30.1 29.3 29.2 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 164 165 164 165 167 169 168 169 170 155 153 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 145 146 147 149 155 160 160 152 137 135 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 4 6 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 51 54 58 63 69 74 69 63 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 18 16 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 49 48 49 52 78 60 78 100 87 98 104 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 27 31 29 41 75 59 39 46 42 41 26 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 7 11 12 10 10 -1 -6 -10 -7 -11 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 139 131 123 91 68 61 18 -12 -52 56 191 300 387 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 22.8 22.7 22.4 22.0 21.7 20.9 20.0 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.5 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.4 87.6 87.9 88.4 88.9 89.8 90.5 90.4 89.6 90.0 91.2 91.4 90.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 6 5 5 4 2 4 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 41 41 43 47 51 53 47 43 52 42 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.8 87.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.2% 9.5% 8.3% 6.9% 9.8% 8.6% 9.1% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.8% 3.3% 2.8% 2.3% 3.4% 2.9% 3.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 43 43 45 44 38 32 35 37 39 42 44 45 47 49 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 43 45 44 38 32 35 37 39 42 44 45 47 49 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 43 42 36 30 33 35 37 40 42 43 45 47 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 37 36 30 24 27 29 31 34 36 37 39 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT