* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 48 48 50 48 48 49 49 48 50 52 55 57 59 59 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 48 48 50 48 48 49 49 48 50 52 55 57 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 46 45 43 43 44 44 43 41 40 40 41 44 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 34 30 20 17 14 24 23 27 24 24 13 12 3 8 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -8 -7 -4 -3 0 -3 -1 -2 2 0 4 1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 170 174 173 171 158 157 149 144 130 123 141 139 129 135 252 292 302 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 164 165 163 165 167 168 167 163 154 151 151 155 154 141 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 142 143 143 146 148 151 146 145 135 130 130 136 135 120 113 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 3 6 4 8 6 8 6 8 8 11 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 50 52 57 63 67 71 71 62 56 52 43 33 32 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 19 18 18 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 47 46 49 44 55 69 72 92 84 93 92 85 -6 -28 -61 -99 200 MB DIV 63 31 34 37 24 38 77 51 45 27 27 7 19 4 1 -9 -10 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 9 11 10 11 5 -2 -1 -13 -8 -12 0 4 17 18 LAND (KM) 150 138 125 111 107 79 72 38 60 102 189 258 272 340 467 357 304 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 22.8 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.0 21.7 20.9 20.5 21.0 22.1 22.7 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.4 87.5 87.7 88.0 88.4 89.3 90.2 90.7 91.0 91.3 91.7 92.0 92.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 4 5 4 4 1 4 4 2 2 6 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 41 41 42 44 47 55 57 47 46 48 52 56 66 34 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -12. -11. -9. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. -19. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.9 87.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.11 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.82 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.8% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.1% 2.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.3% 4.9% 0.2% 0.1% 3.8% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 48 48 50 48 48 49 49 48 50 52 55 57 59 59 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 48 50 48 48 49 49 48 50 52 55 57 59 59 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 47 45 45 46 46 45 47 49 52 54 56 56 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 42 40 40 41 41 40 42 44 47 49 51 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT