* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 50 49 48 46 45 47 47 44 43 42 44 43 43 45 46 V (KT) LAND 50 51 50 49 48 46 45 47 47 44 43 42 44 43 43 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 47 44 39 37 37 37 36 33 32 31 32 33 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 24 36 35 28 21 14 21 25 26 16 21 18 18 12 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 0 -5 -7 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 170 161 168 175 169 154 147 154 166 155 151 129 139 151 164 173 289 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 162 163 165 165 163 157 153 153 153 153 151 151 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 138 141 142 145 145 145 138 134 134 134 134 131 132 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 4 6 3 6 2 8 5 11 7 11 8 700-500 MB RH 53 48 46 44 42 44 45 52 55 62 63 64 65 66 67 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 23 22 21 18 15 15 14 12 12 10 9 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 67 66 50 36 26 21 22 50 47 63 57 72 72 45 30 17 24 200 MB DIV 66 78 69 32 7 1 4 35 14 37 27 25 22 39 23 19 8 700-850 TADV 4 5 0 5 3 5 5 9 8 3 3 2 2 4 0 3 -2 LAND (KM) 59 87 115 113 111 93 70 94 143 177 178 185 211 211 199 204 181 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.4 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.0 21.6 21.1 20.6 20.3 20.2 20.2 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.3 88.3 88.6 88.9 89.8 90.5 91.2 91.8 92.2 92.6 93.0 93.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 1 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 43 41 41 41 41 48 48 37 33 32 32 31 31 32 32 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -21. -22. -26. -27. -29. -30. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -3. -6. -7. -8. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.1 88.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.84 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 18.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 3.5% 4.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 7.2% 5.6% 0.3% 0.0% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 50 49 48 46 45 47 47 44 43 42 44 43 43 45 46 18HR AGO 50 49 48 47 46 44 43 45 45 42 41 40 42 41 41 43 44 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 44 42 41 43 43 40 39 38 40 39 39 41 42 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 37 36 38 38 35 34 33 35 34 34 36 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT