* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 46 45 43 43 44 45 43 42 43 46 48 50 53 55 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 46 45 43 43 44 45 43 42 43 46 48 50 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 43 41 36 33 32 33 33 32 32 33 36 39 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 27 36 36 21 16 14 23 23 21 13 19 16 13 6 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 6 -1 -6 -5 -3 -2 -1 -5 -2 -3 -6 -3 -7 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 184 170 166 169 174 156 143 139 154 158 147 125 139 132 148 153 71 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 161 162 163 162 160 155 153 152 153 152 149 147 146 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 140 137 139 144 144 142 137 133 133 134 134 130 127 126 129 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 7 6 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 54 49 46 45 44 41 45 47 52 59 67 66 68 66 69 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 21 20 17 15 13 13 11 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 57 54 43 24 20 16 48 42 49 58 67 80 60 51 30 34 200 MB DIV 75 69 82 52 33 18 9 39 31 7 17 38 44 37 37 52 17 700-850 TADV 12 4 3 1 3 3 2 3 3 6 2 2 3 4 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 27 70 113 121 129 117 119 132 199 212 191 198 216 206 193 193 203 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.3 22.0 21.4 20.8 20.5 20.3 20.3 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.8 89.5 90.7 91.5 92.3 92.7 92.8 93.1 93.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 1 2 5 5 5 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 50 44 41 40 39 38 39 43 40 35 32 32 31 32 33 33 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -17. -21. -23. -25. -25. -25. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. -3. -2. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.8 88.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.3% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 2.9% 3.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.8% 5.3% 0.4% 0.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 46 45 43 43 44 45 43 42 43 46 48 50 53 55 18HR AGO 45 44 45 44 43 41 41 42 43 41 40 41 44 46 48 51 53 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 37 37 38 39 37 36 37 40 42 44 47 49 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 32 33 34 32 31 32 35 37 39 42 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT