* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 53 52 53 54 53 53 50 52 52 55 55 58 57 V (KT) LAND 50 43 49 50 50 48 50 51 50 49 47 49 49 52 52 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 50 42 46 45 44 40 37 36 36 37 38 39 42 45 49 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 20 21 27 34 24 17 19 18 17 17 11 14 9 11 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 3 -1 -8 -5 -7 -4 -3 -5 -3 -1 -5 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 175 174 172 167 169 174 146 130 135 158 149 153 148 146 156 183 165 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 161 161 163 164 162 157 154 152 154 153 152 152 153 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 146 143 139 139 142 146 145 139 135 133 136 135 131 132 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 7 3 7 3 8 5 9 6 10 700-500 MB RH 59 54 50 47 44 44 46 48 55 61 70 73 74 75 76 74 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 22 22 19 18 16 12 12 10 10 8 9 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 76 77 60 63 49 16 18 24 39 49 62 65 71 72 69 59 53 200 MB DIV 104 88 70 63 46 17 3 33 43 24 23 33 18 38 61 54 37 700-850 TADV 15 12 5 5 4 7 8 5 4 4 4 3 8 2 5 1 1 LAND (KM) -65 -8 51 69 86 97 104 108 160 169 163 167 222 227 187 192 200 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.3 22.1 21.5 20.9 20.4 20.1 20.1 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.1 88.3 88.3 88.4 88.8 89.8 91.2 91.9 92.1 92.2 92.6 93.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 2 1 3 6 6 3 2 2 3 3 1 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 48 44 43 42 38 44 40 34 32 31 31 31 31 31 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -15. -17. -21. -22. -24. -23. -24. -22. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. 2. 2. 5. 5. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.0 87.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.17 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.58 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.0% 12.4% 9.9% 9.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 4.0% 4.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 7.5% 5.7% 3.9% 3.1% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 43 49 50 50 48 50 51 50 49 47 49 49 52 52 55 53 18HR AGO 50 49 55 56 56 54 56 57 56 55 53 55 55 58 58 61 59 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 45 47 48 47 46 44 46 46 49 49 52 50 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 38 40 41 40 39 37 39 39 42 42 45 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT