* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 71 71 66 64 63 63 60 55 53 52 54 57 60 60 V (KT) LAND 60 49 50 52 52 47 45 44 45 41 36 34 34 36 38 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 60 48 48 50 50 49 47 47 47 49 50 51 51 52 54 59 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 24 22 21 24 29 20 15 14 23 22 22 16 17 14 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 1 2 -5 -3 -3 -1 -6 -6 -6 -4 -6 0 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 173 168 181 177 171 170 158 155 134 148 153 139 124 129 113 137 136 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 164 163 163 162 162 163 162 154 156 156 153 153 154 157 158 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 149 145 142 140 140 143 145 136 137 138 136 134 137 140 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 7 6 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 63 58 52 49 47 45 44 50 52 56 62 71 68 76 77 80 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 21 21 20 17 16 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 85 83 79 63 59 33 23 14 53 51 71 81 75 78 59 64 74 200 MB DIV 103 119 101 71 56 45 39 19 77 35 45 51 31 40 61 64 69 700-850 TADV 13 9 11 3 2 2 4 5 7 5 5 1 1 1 4 4 4 LAND (KM) -21 -58 11 46 80 110 130 128 189 221 239 198 205 151 50 18 65 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.5 22.2 22.2 21.7 20.8 20.3 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.8 88.0 88.1 88.2 88.5 89.2 90.3 91.6 92.3 92.7 93.1 93.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 3 2 2 4 6 5 4 4 3 2 4 3 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 53 47 48 47 43 41 38 37 45 46 39 32 31 32 29 29 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -20. -21. -23. -23. -23. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 11. 6. 4. 3. 3. 0. -5. -7. -7. -6. -3. -0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.4 87.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 14.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.52 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.1% 52.7% 35.8% 25.9% 14.7% 15.8% 0.0% 12.2% Logistic: 21.3% 21.1% 23.5% 13.2% 2.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 18.6% 13.8% 8.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.7% 29.2% 22.5% 13.4% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 49 50 52 52 47 45 44 45 41 36 34 34 36 38 41 41 18HR AGO 60 59 60 62 62 57 55 54 55 51 46 44 44 46 48 51 51 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 58 53 51 50 51 47 42 40 40 42 44 47 47 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 45 43 42 43 39 34 32 32 34 36 39 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT