* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/03/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 66 71 73 74 69 68 64 58 54 50 48 49 53 56 55 V (KT) LAND 55 47 39 34 32 36 31 30 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 20 24 V (KT) LGEM 55 49 40 35 32 37 36 35 36 38 39 40 40 40 41 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 24 23 18 27 21 15 16 21 19 17 21 18 16 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 3 2 -4 -2 -4 -4 -3 -4 -5 -5 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 182 166 166 178 188 179 184 165 153 157 176 161 170 170 149 160 163 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.8 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 166 165 163 162 167 169 164 154 154 154 153 153 153 150 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 152 149 147 143 140 148 152 147 137 137 137 137 136 136 136 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 7 4 7 3 7 3 8 5 9 5 700-500 MB RH 69 61 58 54 49 46 44 48 49 54 55 60 63 65 69 72 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 22 23 23 23 19 18 15 13 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 86 79 74 70 68 24 20 19 39 47 58 50 65 78 75 52 200 MB DIV 86 100 82 72 41 38 18 8 -19 1 0 6 18 21 40 65 65 700-850 TADV 11 11 11 10 5 4 6 8 8 6 7 1 4 3 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 21 -27 -76 -56 -5 33 38 37 99 194 196 155 89 36 -4 -53 -117 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.8 21.7 21.4 20.9 20.6 20.3 19.8 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.6 88.0 88.1 88.2 88.4 89.0 90.1 91.3 92.3 93.0 93.5 93.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 3 2 4 5 6 4 4 4 3 2 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 68 54 48 48 49 54 55 53 47 36 32 31 30 27 26 25 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -7. -9. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 16. 18. 19. 14. 13. 9. 3. -1. -5. -7. -6. -2. 1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.7 87.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 15.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.95 7.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.5% 58.3% 39.4% 29.9% 16.1% 27.1% 14.3% 14.9% Logistic: 30.7% 23.4% 32.3% 22.1% 2.5% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 21.2% 1.3% 18.1% 5.1% 2.9% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 27.8% 27.7% 29.9% 19.1% 7.1% 10.4% 4.9% 5.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 47 39 34 32 36 31 30 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 46 41 39 43 38 37 33 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 46 44 48 43 42 38 32 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 47 42 41 37 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT