* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 53 56 58 57 58 58 57 55 52 51 51 51 54 54 V (KT) LAND 40 45 40 36 32 35 34 35 35 34 32 29 28 28 25 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 41 36 32 34 32 31 31 31 33 34 35 35 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 19 25 23 25 27 18 16 16 20 21 22 19 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 0 0 2 -1 -2 -4 -3 -4 -6 -1 -3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 184 167 166 178 186 175 161 147 130 146 152 154 143 146 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.1 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 168 166 165 166 166 169 169 161 157 155 153 158 164 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 163 157 153 148 146 144 145 153 151 143 139 137 134 142 152 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 70 62 59 53 46 45 46 48 51 57 62 69 70 77 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 22 21 20 19 16 16 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 76 76 76 68 58 30 19 9 25 43 67 68 85 82 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 83 102 118 85 32 21 38 20 65 39 42 32 39 42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 12 12 8 8 3 5 7 8 9 5 5 2 4 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 92 36 -19 -61 -43 33 52 55 76 147 196 191 179 104 -20 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.8 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.2 20.7 20.3 20.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.1 87.5 87.8 88.0 88.4 88.7 89.6 90.8 91.7 92.3 92.8 93.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 2 3 5 5 4 3 3 2 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 100 72 56 48 48 55 53 52 47 43 41 35 32 30 31 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 16. 18. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. 12. 11. 11. 11. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.2 86.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 41.5% 23.2% 12.5% 11.3% 12.7% 12.8% 15.7% Logistic: 17.9% 23.9% 21.4% 9.8% 1.9% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.3% 17.6% 12.0% 4.3% 1.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.3% 27.7% 18.9% 8.8% 5.0% 6.0% 4.4% 5.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 40 36 32 35 34 35 35 34 32 29 28 28 25 26 26 18HR AGO 40 39 34 30 26 29 28 29 29 28 26 23 22 22 19 20 20 12HR AGO 40 37 36 32 28 31 30 31 31 30 28 25 24 24 21 22 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 26 29 28 29 29 28 26 23 22 22 19 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT