* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/03/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 50 55 58 59 59 58 54 54 47 46 46 48 48 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 40 39 42 43 43 42 38 37 31 30 30 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 38 37 36 35 34 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 17 17 24 21 28 23 20 14 15 15 21 22 28 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 203 205 188 177 178 190 175 175 155 163 140 177 163 171 168 180 179 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 168 166 165 164 167 169 166 158 159 160 159 158 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 161 158 153 150 145 141 146 150 147 139 139 140 137 136 136 138 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 5 5 6 5 6 4 6 3 7 3 8 4 9 700-500 MB RH 81 76 71 64 61 50 48 47 48 50 54 59 67 69 73 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 18 19 18 18 16 15 13 13 10 10 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 92 88 90 82 62 47 15 10 4 28 43 50 56 61 66 105 200 MB DIV 90 78 71 84 105 59 32 22 45 47 66 53 28 20 23 39 69 700-850 TADV 4 9 10 11 10 2 1 3 10 8 7 5 7 4 8 3 2 LAND (KM) 182 122 63 18 -43 23 67 92 109 150 204 253 275 301 300 284 238 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.8 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.0 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.3 86.8 87.1 87.5 87.9 88.0 88.6 89.6 90.7 91.8 92.5 92.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 4 2 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 118 112 83 62 49 47 44 44 40 38 45 53 49 44 41 37 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. -0. -2. -5. -6. -11. -12. -19. -20. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 15. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. 19. 19. 12. 11. 11. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.8 85.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 84.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.56 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 30.5% 15.7% 11.1% 10.3% 11.8% 12.6% 17.1% Logistic: 12.2% 30.1% 19.4% 6.8% 2.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.8% 3.8% 4.6% 1.6% 0.8% 4.1% 3.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 21.5% 13.3% 6.5% 4.5% 6.3% 5.6% 5.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 43 47 40 39 42 43 43 42 38 37 31 30 30 31 32 18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 36 35 38 39 39 38 34 33 27 26 26 27 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 28 27 30 31 31 30 26 25 19 18 18 19 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT