* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYFIV AL252020 10/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 45 52 60 61 62 61 60 59 60 60 57 54 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 45 38 42 44 45 43 43 42 43 43 40 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 38 33 35 34 33 33 34 37 40 42 41 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 15 18 18 23 20 26 17 12 9 15 15 22 19 22 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -1 0 1 1 -2 -4 -4 0 3 -1 -3 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 216 210 202 198 181 197 184 184 169 162 133 154 156 159 160 182 186 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.3 29.9 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 169 169 165 164 164 167 169 166 159 160 159 158 157 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 165 160 156 153 147 144 143 149 156 148 141 139 138 137 136 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 4 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 80 79 74 68 63 56 50 50 54 57 59 61 62 68 72 74 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 19 20 20 20 18 17 16 16 15 16 17 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 90 101 90 84 87 72 60 55 25 11 22 31 42 41 51 59 62 200 MB DIV 87 96 90 71 97 64 41 43 36 36 75 75 52 34 40 28 37 700-850 TADV 1 5 10 11 11 14 5 4 4 7 8 3 6 1 4 3 0 LAND (KM) 270 199 129 81 32 -49 38 68 54 64 106 198 277 293 259 259 291 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.2 21.9 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.6 86.2 86.6 87.0 87.4 87.6 87.8 88.8 89.9 91.1 92.1 92.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 5 6 5 4 2 1 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 105 129 115 88 65 48 45 43 52 51 43 49 50 46 44 44 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 22. 30. 31. 32. 31. 30. 29. 30. 30. 27. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.5 85.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 TWENTYFIV 10/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 100.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.66 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 25.3% 15.2% 10.6% 10.1% 11.2% 12.5% 18.5% Logistic: 8.9% 28.3% 13.7% 3.8% 1.7% 2.7% 3.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.2% 13.8% 4.9% 1.5% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 22.4% 11.2% 5.3% 4.3% 5.0% 5.6% 6.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 TWENTYFIV 10/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 TWENTYFIV 10/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 45 38 42 44 45 43 43 42 43 43 40 37 37 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 35 39 41 42 40 40 39 40 40 37 34 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 28 32 34 35 33 33 32 33 33 30 27 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 18 22 24 25 23 23 22 23 23 20 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT