* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL252020 10/02/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 47 57 65 67 65 63 60 58 59 59 60 61 61 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 47 43 35 39 37 35 32 30 31 31 31 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 37 39 36 31 33 32 31 31 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 9 15 19 26 22 30 21 16 13 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 0 0 0 3 -1 -4 -4 -6 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 227 202 206 200 184 196 187 188 170 179 159 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 170 170 165 164 164 167 168 169 169 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 168 166 166 162 155 147 143 143 146 153 157 152 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 7 5 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 80 77 73 66 59 52 50 52 59 63 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 17 19 20 21 20 17 17 15 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 96 101 96 81 77 64 53 47 31 16 41 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 82 100 96 70 87 53 38 18 36 36 66 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 5 10 11 8 8 4 3 9 8 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 218 266 189 123 58 -35 -17 13 0 1 26 81 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 3 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 78 102 127 115 77 50 47 47 54 55 55 52 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 27. 35. 37. 35. 33. 30. 28. 29. 29. 30. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.8 84.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 INVEST 10/02/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 99.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.66 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.94 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 29.8% 15.7% 11.2% 10.7% 11.7% 12.6% 17.8% Logistic: 10.5% 34.7% 17.6% 6.9% 3.5% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 2.2% 20.3% 7.2% 2.0% 1.7% 2.3% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 28.3% 13.5% 6.7% 5.3% 6.0% 4.9% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 15.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 INVEST 10/02/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 INVEST 10/02/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 47 43 35 39 37 35 32 30 31 31 31 33 33 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 43 39 31 35 33 31 28 26 27 27 27 29 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 36 32 24 28 26 24 21 19 20 20 20 22 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT