* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 49 45 41 40 39 35 32 27 23 22 21 21 21 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 49 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 46 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 20 19 19 22 17 21 31 43 44 35 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 0 0 -3 2 1 -1 0 -3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 238 253 259 249 253 258 260 241 239 237 262 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.5 30.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 151 149 148 157 169 161 158 153 124 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 132 128 124 122 129 150 135 132 127 104 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -51.5 -52.6 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 1 0 1 1 2 2 4 2 5 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 48 50 54 53 49 46 47 47 47 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 18 18 14 11 10 9 9 9 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 12 0 -14 10 -10 10 -11 19 -44 3 -36 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 38 31 28 34 28 14 8 15 0 -3 -29 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 12 10 5 10 8 -6 8 1 13 6 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 215 166 113 58 12 -45 -98 -128 -117 -213 -327 -425 -493 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.5 30.2 30.7 31.7 33.0 34.2 35.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.3 94.8 95.3 95.8 96.3 96.3 95.6 94.3 93.0 91.8 90.5 89.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 5 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 52 48 40 40 32 12 6 5 4 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -17. -21. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -13. -17. -19. -22. -23. -26. -30. -29. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -9. -10. -11. -15. -18. -22. -27. -28. -29. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.6 93.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.7% 12.1% 9.7% 0.0% 10.9% 11.2% 7.9% Logistic: 3.6% 5.4% 6.3% 5.5% 0.7% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.6% 6.2% 5.1% 0.2% 4.3% 3.8% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 49 49 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 48 35 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 32 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 27 21 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT