* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO AL222020 09/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 47 53 54 53 51 49 48 50 47 45 42 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 47 53 54 53 51 49 48 50 47 45 37 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 37 36 35 34 34 35 37 39 42 42 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 18 16 19 20 13 15 11 10 7 11 14 30 36 41 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 5 4 3 -1 -2 -6 0 -3 -1 -4 1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 210 206 214 229 223 216 222 219 239 196 205 217 220 220 221 226 259 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 168 170 169 168 168 167 159 155 158 158 157 161 162 164 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 150 148 148 146 141 142 143 133 128 131 131 130 134 136 138 145 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -53.1 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 4 3 4 1 2 0 2 1 4 3 7 3 6 2 700-500 MB RH 77 75 70 65 64 54 56 62 66 64 63 55 50 49 51 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 19 19 22 23 20 16 13 12 10 11 11 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 40 41 42 26 31 43 35 35 2 17 -6 2 -14 2 -1 -26 -61 200 MB DIV 70 79 48 36 47 48 38 59 5 44 14 3 13 37 10 0 -16 700-850 TADV -1 -1 4 12 9 24 7 8 4 0 -1 -2 0 1 1 -2 2 LAND (KM) 378 386 382 386 400 336 291 207 123 95 108 87 37 7 27 -6 -133 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.6 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.1 93.9 93.6 93.4 93.2 93.6 94.3 95.2 96.2 96.5 96.3 96.1 96.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 4 3 3 5 3 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 85 81 82 79 67 56 62 61 34 31 32 34 36 50 55 19 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 2. -2. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 17. 23. 24. 23. 21. 19. 18. 20. 17. 15. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.5 94.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.52 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 20.2% 14.1% 10.1% 9.2% 10.8% 12.4% 20.9% Logistic: 8.1% 21.1% 12.2% 7.1% 2.7% 6.7% 3.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 14.4% 9.0% 5.9% 4.0% 5.9% 5.3% 7.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 47 53 54 53 51 49 48 50 47 45 37 31 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 44 50 51 50 48 46 45 47 44 42 34 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 39 45 46 45 43 41 40 42 39 37 29 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 30 36 37 36 34 32 31 33 30 28 20 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT