* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICKY AL212020 09/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 32 29 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 32 29 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 33 30 27 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 57 52 49 51 43 41 35 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -10 -10 -6 -8 -4 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 272 269 280 284 288 320 334 330 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.5 26.8 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 117 118 118 120 118 122 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 105 106 107 108 107 111 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 57 57 55 55 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 10 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 5 2 -4 -12 -26 -43 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 19 14 15 5 11 -10 -7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 6 3 0 4 -7 -7 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1793 1881 1969 2051 2133 2315 2177 2042 1854 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.5 21.1 20.8 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.3 35.1 36.0 36.8 37.6 39.5 41.1 42.9 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 2 2 3 3 3 19 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -16. -23. -29. -36. -42. -45. -47. -50. -52. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -19. -24. -29. -35. -38. -40. -41. -43. -45. -47. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.4 34.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212020 VICKY 09/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212020 VICKY 09/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 37 34 32 29 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 31 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 31 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 27 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT