* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICKY AL212020 09/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 36 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 36 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 42 38 34 27 22 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 33 46 61 65 46 36 23 30 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 -10 -15 -4 -7 -6 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 279 279 280 273 266 260 281 307 329 328 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.1 25.7 26.0 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 114 117 115 115 117 114 110 113 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 105 107 105 105 106 103 99 102 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 54 54 52 48 44 42 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 15 12 9 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 16 34 29 3 3 -8 -1 -30 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 24 2 -8 18 23 17 3 11 -26 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 15 26 24 17 6 4 1 -8 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1338 1401 1467 1557 1648 1844 2068 2272 2339 2248 2171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.0 22.5 22.8 22.7 22.8 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.7 30.4 31.1 32.0 32.9 34.8 37.0 39.0 40.8 42.6 44.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -19. -25. -29. -33. -36. -39. -40. -42. -44. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -23. -26. -27. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -23. -30. -35. -40. -47. -52. -54. -56. -57. -56. -56. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.3 29.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212020 VICKY 09/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212020 VICKY 09/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 40 36 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 41 37 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT