* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICKY AL212020 09/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 38 34 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 38 34 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 41 38 34 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 30 35 49 60 56 41 33 26 24 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 0 -8 -8 -4 -8 -6 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 276 276 273 273 264 248 261 265 313 329 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.2 25.8 25.8 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 113 113 116 115 116 116 111 110 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 103 103 106 105 106 105 100 98 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 56 52 51 49 45 40 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 15 14 10 9 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 3 15 37 23 17 14 4 -1 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 68 42 25 0 28 21 1 -1 -2 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 16 30 27 11 5 5 0 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1293 1334 1378 1450 1524 1751 1976 2200 2381 2305 2247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.9 22.3 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.2 29.7 30.2 30.9 31.7 33.9 36.1 38.3 40.4 41.9 43.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 10 8 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 1 0 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -28. -32. -36. -39. -40. -43. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -19. -21. -24. -27. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -6. -10. -18. -27. -34. -37. -42. -46. -49. -50. -52. -51. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.0 29.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212020 VICKY 09/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212020 VICKY 09/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 38 34 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 37 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 32 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT