* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICKY AL212020 09/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 37 35 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 37 35 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 41 38 32 25 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 22 29 35 47 60 50 44 31 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 4 0 -9 -2 -9 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 273 274 270 271 270 269 265 274 291 323 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.3 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.0 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 116 114 113 116 117 115 116 113 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 105 103 102 106 106 105 106 103 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 59 55 56 55 54 49 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 13 13 12 8 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 11 0 13 28 7 -1 -13 -8 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 62 69 48 22 30 21 7 -2 -9 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 9 16 29 24 11 6 1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1217 1243 1272 1323 1375 1535 1751 1947 2182 2373 2299 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.3 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.3 22.6 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.6 30.2 31.8 33.9 35.8 38.1 40.1 42.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 4 7 5 0 1 4 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -24. -30. -35. -38. -41. -43. -45. -48. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -11. -15. -18. -20. -24. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -3. -5. -11. -22. -30. -35. -40. -44. -47. -49. -51. -52. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.4 28.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212020 VICKY 09/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212020 VICKY 09/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 37 35 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 35 33 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 32 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT