* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 72 60 48 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 83 72 60 44 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 83 69 57 43 38 34 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 40 34 38 37 44 42 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -1 0 6 5 0 0 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 176 177 176 184 179 174 182 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 23.6 19.9 16.3 16.5 10.6 5.5 8.0 6.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 97 81 73 74 69 68 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 85 73 69 70 68 67 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.0 -48.9 -49.1 -49.8 -50.2 -48.9 -49.2 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 55 57 69 74 77 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 54 50 47 42 38 31 27 30 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 204 194 194 218 236 242 267 258 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 153 93 83 111 97 76 83 70 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 3 -20 -21 -18 -52 -163 43 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 506 336 170 79 -44 90 97 568 574 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.2 40.7 42.2 43.8 45.4 49.4 54.3 59.1 62.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.5 64.0 64.4 63.5 62.6 59.8 55.8 52.7 53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 15 16 17 20 25 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 24 CX,CY: -3/ 24 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -30. -40. -51. -59. -64. -69. -73. -76. -77. -78. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -17. -23. -27. -25. -22. -22. -22. -23. -24. -25. -26. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -12. -20. -30. -31. -36. -38. -39. -40. -40. -38. -37. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 19. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -18. -30. -42. -65. -88. -96.-105.-111.-117.-120.-125.-130.-132.-133.-132. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 39.2 63.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -10.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 4( 16) 0( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 83 72 60 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 78 66 50 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 74 58 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 64 47 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 54 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 IN 6HR 90 83 74 68 65 54 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT