* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 79 73 64 46 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 79 73 64 46 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 85 82 74 62 44 35 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 43 45 41 37 40 45 46 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 6 -2 -2 8 0 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 197 178 171 171 180 183 177 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.9 27.7 24.2 23.2 16.8 12.2 6.6 7.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 127 135 100 95 75 70 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 113 115 85 82 71 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.4 -49.3 -48.6 -48.8 -49.9 -50.3 -49.9 -47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 56 56 53 58 71 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 47 52 54 52 48 40 33 27 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 211 215 213 204 221 219 232 286 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 131 140 90 66 87 78 81 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 61 107 56 -12 -27 -14 -36 -125 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1050 818 586 464 345 50 79 39 528 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 36.6 38.6 39.8 40.9 44.5 49.0 52.5 57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.4 62.1 62.9 63.0 63.2 62.0 59.6 55.2 50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 16 12 15 21 23 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 7 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 17 CX,CY: 6/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -20. -30. -39. -45. -49. -53. -57. -60. -61. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -17. -23. -27. -30. -31. -32. -33. -35. -36. -38. -39. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 0. -6. -17. -26. -25. -26. -28. -29. -29. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 18. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -12. -21. -39. -59. -79. -85. -91. -97.-102.-107.-114.-119.-122.-125. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 34.6 61.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 7( 16) 0( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 79 73 64 46 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 81 75 66 48 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 66 48 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 66 48 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 48 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT