* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 75 70 55 36 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 75 70 55 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 77 74 67 49 33 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 43 41 45 40 41 45 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 15 6 -3 0 4 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 226 195 179 171 177 179 180 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.3 27.2 27.8 24.8 21.0 16.4 12.6 6.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 121 130 136 105 85 74 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 109 114 117 90 76 70 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.6 -49.6 -49.1 -48.7 -49.4 -49.7 -50.6 -49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.0 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 54 51 55 62 66 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 49 52 54 52 43 36 30 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 215 212 214 224 212 237 202 214 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 75 136 113 77 92 75 81 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 40 84 86 48 -16 -19 -15 -36 -161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1264 1054 819 639 460 247 -22 7 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 34.4 36.5 38.0 39.5 41.9 45.6 49.4 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 62.3 62.5 63.3 64.1 63.4 61.6 58.1 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 22 18 16 14 16 21 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 0 13 48 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 16 CX,CY: 5/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -7. -14. -23. -31. -36. -39. -42. -45. -48. -50. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. -33. -35. -37. -39. -41. -43. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 5. -2. -11. -19. -23. -24. -26. -27. -27. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 18. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -10. -25. -44. -61. -75. -80. -85. -89. -94.-101.-106.-109.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 32.2 62.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 4( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 76 75 70 55 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 77 76 71 56 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 70 55 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 50 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT