* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 77 76 75 63 47 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 77 76 75 63 47 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 80 79 75 57 40 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 28 46 50 45 44 43 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 7 10 9 -4 6 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 223 225 198 179 169 171 181 183 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.4 26.3 27.6 27.7 23.5 16.9 12.8 8.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 132 120 135 135 96 75 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 120 107 119 115 84 70 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -49.6 -49.5 -49.2 -48.9 -48.7 -49.8 -50.5 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 53 52 52 59 68 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 44 49 52 54 48 41 34 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 192 212 217 219 217 225 223 203 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 94 84 139 129 75 77 75 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 29 92 86 57 -18 -22 -30 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1317 1209 1040 833 623 341 74 39 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 32.5 34.4 36.3 38.1 40.7 44.1 47.8 51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.0 62.8 62.5 63.0 63.5 63.8 62.6 59.8 55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 20 19 19 16 15 19 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 13 0 21 46 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -12. -20. -28. -33. -36. -40. -42. -45. -47. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -5. -10. -14. -21. -25. -28. -32. -34. -36. -37. -39. -41. -42. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 7. 9. 5. -1. -10. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -17. -33. -51. -67. -72. -77. -82. -87. -92. -98.-102.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.5 63.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 5( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 77 76 75 63 47 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 77 76 64 48 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 74 62 46 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 57 41 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT