* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 85 84 83 76 60 41 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 85 84 83 76 60 44 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 85 86 87 86 73 49 34 31 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 30 45 51 47 42 45 43 39 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 8 10 9 -6 1 0 -1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 252 217 219 197 172 177 181 183 184 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 26.6 27.4 26.3 27.6 24.3 18.3 16.4 11.7 8.9 5.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 122 132 120 134 102 77 75 71 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 109 118 108 117 88 71 71 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.3 -49.6 -49.4 -49.4 -48.5 -49.2 -50.2 -51.0 -50.3 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.1 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 54 53 51 56 63 63 62 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 40 44 48 51 51 44 35 30 25 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 162 189 211 206 206 207 225 199 206 219 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 71 81 83 152 82 99 64 74 115 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 15 17 83 85 -6 -23 -11 -84 -205 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1272 1282 1188 993 771 414 182 1 8 416 1093 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 31.3 32.8 34.9 36.9 40.0 42.9 46.5 50.9 55.3 59.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.4 63.0 62.5 62.6 62.7 63.8 63.2 61.1 57.1 50.6 42.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 18 21 18 15 17 22 27 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 2 16 1 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -13. -22. -31. -38. -44. -48. -51. -54. -56. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -8. -13. -20. -25. -28. -31. -31. -30. -31. -32. -33. -34. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 5. -5. -13. -21. -26. -27. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -1. -2. -9. -25. -44. -61. -77. -85. -90. -94. -99.-103.-106.-111. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 29.7 63.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 9( 26) 5( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 85 84 83 76 60 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 85 84 83 76 60 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 79 72 56 40 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 67 51 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 59 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 60 44 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 84 85 76 70 66 50 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS