* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 91 89 86 75 60 39 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 91 89 86 75 60 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 90 91 93 93 87 63 44 36 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 14 30 46 43 39 40 47 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 8 8 5 -3 2 -5 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 304 253 224 225 178 174 177 181 177 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.8 26.9 27.3 26.1 27.8 23.9 17.4 12.9 7.8 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 134 124 131 118 136 99 75 71 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 115 110 118 105 116 85 70 68 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -49.6 -49.4 -49.0 -48.7 -49.5 -50.4 -50.6 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.6 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 56 55 54 51 60 63 54 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 40 45 50 54 48 42 34 30 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 146 157 189 216 219 214 232 241 213 233 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 54 74 86 83 120 76 76 60 64 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 10 20 36 106 43 -15 -10 -28 -100 -85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1190 1290 1306 1195 1031 600 325 94 32 104 677 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.9 30.7 32.6 34.5 38.3 40.8 43.9 47.4 51.7 56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.7 63.4 63.0 62.8 62.5 63.6 64.0 62.6 59.5 54.0 47.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 14 19 19 16 14 18 24 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 13 4 14 0 44 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -23. -32. -41. -47. -51. -54. -57. -59. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -4. -9. -17. -21. -23. -26. -27. -27. -27. -28. -28. -29. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 9. 2. -8. -16. -24. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -15. -30. -51. -68. -83. -87. -91. -95. -98.-101.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 29.0 63.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 10.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 11( 31) 10( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 90 91 89 86 75 60 42 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 89 90 88 85 74 59 41 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 87 85 82 71 56 38 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 75 64 49 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 57 42 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 69 58 43 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 90 81 75 71 60 45 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS