* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 90 90 90 88 81 65 44 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 90 90 90 88 81 65 43 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 88 89 90 91 75 49 34 30 29 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 11 13 28 47 46 40 43 44 44 43 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 6 10 11 9 -7 -2 0 4 6 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 305 292 246 217 199 174 181 180 185 194 204 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 26.6 27.4 27.6 24.2 18.3 16.6 10.9 9.2 6.8 8.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 137 122 132 135 101 76 75 71 70 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 119 108 118 118 87 70 71 69 68 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.1 -49.5 -49.3 -48.5 -49.1 -49.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 57 55 57 56 54 54 57 59 57 53 64 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 41 42 46 53 53 45 37 31 23 16 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 144 160 187 211 201 205 213 193 171 177 222 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 54 56 69 75 156 90 94 68 70 100 91 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 11 21 30 84 -3 -18 -29 -86 -194 -65 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1156 1210 1266 1274 1207 774 393 184 -35 -5 454 1033 1342 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.2 29.7 31.2 32.6 36.9 40.2 42.9 46.1 50.4 55.3 59.1 61.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.3 63.5 63.7 63.1 62.5 62.6 63.8 63.1 61.0 56.4 49.9 43.0 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 10 15 18 19 15 15 22 29 29 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 17 13 2 16 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -21. -30. -39. -45. -52. -57. -60. -62. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -3. -12. -17. -19. -22. -24. -25. -27. -29. -30. -31. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 13. 5. -6. -15. -27. -37. -32. -31. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. 0. -2. -9. -25. -46. -64. -84. -99.-100.-103.-106.-108.-111. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.6 63.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 528.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 12( 32) 11( 39) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 90 90 90 88 81 65 43 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 90 90 90 88 81 65 43 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 86 84 77 61 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 80 78 71 55 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 69 62 46 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 70 63 47 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 90 81 75 71 64 48 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS