* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 86 84 85 83 84 70 52 33 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 86 86 84 85 83 84 70 47 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 86 84 85 85 89 82 56 38 30 30 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 10 13 44 44 43 42 44 39 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 3 6 10 10 9 -6 6 0 4 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 331 305 292 244 208 181 175 177 182 193 222 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.3 26.6 26.4 26.0 21.3 16.6 12.9 7.1 9.1 8.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 128 122 121 116 86 74 71 68 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 118 110 108 108 100 76 70 69 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -49.4 -49.1 -48.6 -49.6 -50.0 -51.4 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 57 58 60 57 53 56 59 63 60 61 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 37 40 39 42 47 55 48 41 32 26 19 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 110 144 171 188 198 185 188 200 200 181 167 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 48 46 53 72 80 148 85 88 70 72 99 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 11 19 73 41 -15 -32 -71 -57 18 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1111 1174 1240 1308 1275 965 515 233 0 -89 290 777 1306 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.7 29.4 30.4 31.3 35.2 39.2 42.0 45.2 48.8 52.7 56.5 60.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.6 63.0 63.4 63.2 63.0 62.2 63.2 63.5 61.2 57.1 51.5 45.2 38.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 15 19 17 15 20 25 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 18 15 8 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -20. -29. -38. -44. -51. -56. -59. -61. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -8. -14. -17. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. -24. -25. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 2. 6. 15. 9. -0. -13. -23. -33. -39. -37. -36. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. -6. -5. -7. -6. -20. -38. -57. -72. -85. -96.-102.-106.-108.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.0 62.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 556.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 10( 29) 9( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 86 86 84 85 83 84 70 47 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 89 87 88 86 87 73 50 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 85 83 84 70 47 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 81 79 80 66 43 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 69 70 56 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 86 77 71 68 65 66 52 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 86 86 77 71 67 68 54 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS