* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 96 96 94 92 90 84 63 40 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 98 96 96 94 92 90 84 63 42 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 97 94 91 90 94 95 72 46 34 31 30 34 38 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 6 8 27 47 42 40 41 35 32 38 45 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -6 0 4 7 12 0 4 4 9 6 4 8 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 310 329 312 289 206 195 173 181 183 193 217 249 246 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.0 27.3 27.9 23.4 17.3 13.1 8.8 9.8 8.9 9.1 9.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 140 134 127 125 131 139 96 75 71 69 69 67 65 63 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 122 115 108 109 118 121 83 70 69 68 68 66 63 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -49.7 -49.5 -48.7 -49.2 -50.0 -51.0 -52.2 -53.2 -54.5 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 51 54 58 58 60 55 60 61 63 69 72 69 65 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 39 37 40 39 44 52 54 45 35 28 23 25 22 25 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 95 112 143 160 212 179 178 199 201 194 170 144 104 101 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 33 49 46 50 72 162 92 108 93 93 97 71 43 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -1 8 13 60 1 -17 -37 -38 -31 33 90 -27 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1107 1163 1225 1292 1330 1154 668 338 99 12 187 687 1202 1510 1501 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.4 29.1 29.8 30.4 33.5 38.1 41.2 44.0 47.5 51.7 55.4 58.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.6 62.1 62.7 62.8 62.9 61.9 62.0 62.8 62.1 58.7 52.8 46.0 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 11 19 20 14 18 25 28 26 20 13 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 19 13 10 6 12 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -25. -36. -46. -54. -61. -67. -73. -77. -78. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -10. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 3. 10. 14. 3. -11. -22. -29. -26. -30. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -16. -37. -60. -77. -89. -92.-102.-103.-105.-108. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 27.6 61.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 667.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.8% 2.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 19( 37) 16( 47) 13( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 96 96 94 92 90 84 63 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 97 97 95 93 91 85 64 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 94 92 90 84 63 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 86 84 78 57 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 77 71 50 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 77 75 69 48 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 98 96 87 81 77 75 69 48 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS