* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 104 103 103 99 94 89 71 45 24 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 104 104 103 103 99 94 89 71 45 30 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 104 102 100 98 95 97 84 54 36 29 32 35 37 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 7 5 15 44 44 46 43 42 37 48 44 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -3 -3 3 9 10 8 -3 9 0 0 -1 2 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 301 296 309 305 239 216 186 176 179 188 222 242 249 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.1 24.6 19.3 16.3 12.0 11.3 9.1 9.2 9.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 136 132 128 119 105 78 74 71 71 68 65 63 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 127 125 117 114 114 107 92 71 70 69 69 67 63 62 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -50.2 -50.2 -49.5 -49.1 -49.0 -49.7 -50.2 -51.0 -52.7 -55.9 -57.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 2.3 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.3 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 50 50 56 62 60 59 58 60 67 70 66 57 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 39 41 39 42 44 49 54 48 37 27 27 29 24 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 57 81 103 139 186 200 177 193 231 222 199 109 31 -10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 9 23 49 44 69 103 108 96 67 62 71 44 15 39 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 3 -1 0 25 91 48 -21 -7 -26 3 -9 -2 47 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1075 1098 1128 1193 1262 1327 960 462 229 17 -20 439 993 1364 1563 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.5 28.0 28.8 29.5 31.5 35.4 40.1 42.6 45.5 49.3 53.2 56.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 61.5 62.1 62.5 62.9 62.2 61.6 62.3 62.6 60.6 55.8 49.3 41.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 15 21 18 14 20 27 28 23 13 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 30 24 14 12 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -16. -26. -37. -48. -57. -65. -71. -77. -81. -82. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -8. -13. -16. -17. -17. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 8. 14. 7. -8. -22. -24. -21. -27. -36. -35. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -11. -16. -34. -60. -81. -88. -89.-100.-112.-113.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 26.9 60.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 797.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.10 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 5.9% 5.7% 3.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 26( 46) 25( 59) 21( 68) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 3( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 104 103 103 99 94 89 71 45 30 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 104 103 103 99 94 89 71 45 30 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 100 96 91 86 68 42 27 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 95 91 86 81 63 37 22 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 82 77 72 54 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 84 79 74 56 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 104 104 95 89 85 80 75 57 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS