* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 101 102 99 97 92 90 79 56 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 103 101 102 99 97 92 90 79 51 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 102 99 97 94 90 95 90 66 42 31 32 35 39 39 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 12 10 6 9 42 49 46 37 45 42 37 38 40 37 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -3 -3 2 5 10 -2 9 3 2 4 10 16 2 0 SHEAR DIR 277 291 296 288 308 246 193 190 174 185 190 193 226 258 259 251 268 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.0 27.7 20.7 16.9 13.6 8.5 10.6 9.1 8.9 9.5 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 145 138 130 126 117 136 84 74 70 67 68 66 65 67 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 127 119 112 110 104 117 75 69 67 66 66 64 64 65 66 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.9 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -50.3 -49.4 -49.4 -48.5 -48.7 -49.7 -50.5 -50.3 -53.1 -56.1 -57.5 -58.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 2.1 1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 43 45 51 55 61 63 57 61 61 57 64 62 59 62 55 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 40 40 41 39 41 47 54 54 44 32 25 27 30 23 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 56 85 110 164 209 169 165 205 223 201 216 135 33 22 -38 200 MB DIV 31 8 10 29 49 57 82 171 87 103 71 74 58 42 33 34 9 700-850 TADV 7 -5 0 4 0 5 -2 34 -5 -21 -30 -69 39 125 121 39 55 LAND (KM) 1076 1107 1150 1206 1268 1344 1016 606 279 -12 -13 116 490 843 1141 1505 1145 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.1 27.9 28.7 29.4 31.3 34.9 38.9 42.2 45.3 48.4 51.3 54.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.8 60.5 61.3 61.8 62.3 62.2 61.5 61.6 62.3 61.3 58.3 53.9 48.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 14 19 19 16 17 19 21 19 16 15 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 24 14 10 7 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -25. -35. -47. -56. -64. -70. -76. -80. -83. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -7. -12. -15. -15. -15. -16. -16. -15. -16. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. 5. 13. 13. 0. -16. -28. -24. -20. -28. -40. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -3. -6. -8. -13. -15. -26. -49. -73. -90. -92. -93.-105.-119.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 26.3 59.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 826.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 3.2% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 23( 44) 21( 56) 20( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 1( 18) 0( 18) 0( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 103 101 102 99 97 92 90 79 51 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 102 103 100 98 93 91 80 52 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 102 99 97 92 90 79 51 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 92 90 85 83 72 44 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 84 79 77 66 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 103 94 88 85 82 77 75 64 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 103 101 92 86 82 77 75 64 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS