* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 102 101 100 97 93 92 85 66 45 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 103 102 101 100 97 93 92 85 66 47 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 102 100 98 96 89 94 93 79 51 37 30 32 36 40 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 13 14 11 6 23 48 46 41 39 46 42 37 51 48 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -4 0 4 8 8 1 6 2 8 6 8 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 265 276 283 293 310 322 216 199 183 183 187 205 218 258 275 257 260 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.9 26.7 27.6 26.4 25.9 17.4 14.0 11.0 9.0 9.9 9.5 8.9 9.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 147 144 135 121 134 121 115 74 70 68 67 64 63 63 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 131 127 117 106 120 107 99 69 67 67 65 62 61 62 62 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -49.9 -49.9 -50.0 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -49.2 -49.1 -48.9 -50.1 -50.8 -52.2 -53.9 -56.9 -59.1 -59.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.9 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 45 44 45 51 58 65 61 64 68 57 63 68 63 58 51 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 41 41 40 41 41 42 52 53 47 37 28 23 27 28 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 53 48 42 45 84 137 193 187 187 190 214 195 129 106 90 -7 -70 200 MB DIV 3 24 29 -3 24 69 76 97 151 93 104 53 66 44 14 17 38 700-850 TADV 15 4 -4 0 2 4 7 80 55 -23 -28 -45 -27 83 112 99 48 LAND (KM) 1084 1106 1139 1180 1232 1391 1188 781 410 92 57 -8 340 598 727 903 1135 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.1 28.9 30.5 33.3 37.4 41.1 44.2 47.1 50.0 53.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.6 59.5 60.3 61.0 61.8 62.1 61.4 60.9 61.7 61.6 59.8 56.1 50.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 11 18 20 17 15 17 21 18 10 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 33 22 12 3 18 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -14. -24. -33. -44. -53. -60. -67. -73. -78. -81. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -8. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 11. 13. 4. -10. -24. -30. -24. -22. -32. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -13. -20. -39. -60. -81. -95. -94. -97.-112.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 25.5 58.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 845.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.05 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 4.5% 4.0% 2.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 5.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 24( 45) 22( 57) 20( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 34 9( 40) 1( 41) 0( 41) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 103 102 101 100 97 93 92 85 66 47 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 103 102 101 98 94 93 86 67 48 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 99 96 92 91 84 65 46 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 91 87 86 79 60 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 83 79 78 71 52 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 103 94 88 85 83 79 78 71 52 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 103 102 93 87 83 79 78 71 52 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS