* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 114 112 107 102 100 96 91 78 56 36 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 114 114 112 107 102 100 96 91 78 53 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 115 114 111 107 97 94 97 88 59 40 32 31 33 38 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 10 14 15 5 16 38 49 43 37 36 44 41 36 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 1 0 -2 4 9 9 -2 3 0 6 7 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 235 259 277 272 288 326 240 196 182 184 194 208 210 228 248 263 270 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 27.3 27.7 26.0 25.6 17.5 16.2 12.2 9.1 11.0 9.6 9.0 8.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 151 147 128 134 117 114 75 72 69 67 66 64 61 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 136 134 129 111 118 105 101 70 67 66 65 64 62 60 59 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -50.3 -49.3 -49.3 -48.8 -49.7 -50.4 -51.7 -53.1 -54.5 -56.4 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.8 2.0 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 45 45 44 47 55 61 62 55 64 58 61 72 68 56 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 41 41 42 40 40 41 47 53 51 42 33 25 26 26 24 19 850 MB ENV VOR 68 57 50 48 53 117 157 207 185 156 206 199 158 135 75 53 23 200 MB DIV 31 -2 19 16 1 60 68 105 183 91 117 85 81 53 25 5 14 700-850 TADV 14 14 9 -2 -2 1 14 14 34 -18 -8 -19 -16 9 19 4 8 LAND (KM) 1062 1065 1088 1119 1164 1300 1303 990 509 108 24 57 166 453 630 758 851 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.0 29.7 31.8 35.3 39.9 43.8 46.7 49.3 51.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.8 58.7 59.6 60.4 61.2 62.3 62.1 61.0 61.7 62.5 62.2 59.0 53.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 10 14 20 22 17 15 19 19 14 9 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 42 38 34 24 8 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -18. -29. -39. -51. -62. -71. -78. -85. -90. -93. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -7. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -0. 6. 13. 10. -2. -16. -27. -25. -24. -25. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -8. -13. -15. -19. -24. -37. -59. -79. -97.-101.-104.-110.-119. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 24.4 57.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 920.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 5.8% 4.6% 3.1% 1.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 2.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 27( 65) 24( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 20 23( 38) 3( 40) 1( 41) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 114 112 107 102 100 96 91 78 53 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 114 112 107 102 100 96 91 78 53 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 104 99 97 93 88 75 50 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 100 95 93 89 84 71 46 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 91 89 85 80 67 42 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 93 91 87 82 69 44 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 114 114 105 99 95 93 89 84 71 46 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS